National-level risk assessment: A multi-country study of malware infections

The security of computers is a function of both their inherent vulnerability and the environment in which they operate. Much as with the public health of human populations, the “public health” of computer populations can be studied in terms of what factors influence their security. Using data collected from Microsoft Windows Malicious Software Removal Tool (MSRT) running on more than one billion machines, we conduct a multi-country analysis of malware infections and measures of economic development, educational achievement, Internet infrastructure, and cybersecurity preparedness. We find that while increases in these factors is often correlated with reduced infection rates, their significance and magnitude vary considerably. In contrast to past work, these variations suggest that policy interventions, such as efforts to increase the quality of home Internet connections, are likely to decrease infection rates in only some circumstances.